Psychology and Deterrence
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Most current analysis, the authors, note, ignore decisionmakers' emotions, preceptions, and domestic political needs, assuming instead that people repond to crisis in highly rational ways. Examining the historical evidence from a psychological perspective, Psychology and Deterrence offers case studies on the origins of World War I, the 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict, and the Falklands Wars as seen by the most important participants.
These case studies reveal national leaders to be both more cautious and more reckless than theory would predict. They also show how deterrence strategies often backfire by aggravating a nation's sense of insequrity, thereby calling forth the very behavior they seek to prevent. The authors' conclusions offer important insights for superpower bargaining and nuclear deterrence.
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Robert Jervis is the author of Perception and Misperception in International Politics and How Statesmen Think: The Psychology of International Politics. Richard Ned Lebow is the director of the Program in International Relations at the University of Pittsburgh's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs.
βForeign Affairs
